Although the Thunder team fell behind 2-1 in the finals, the overall strength of Shanghai is stronger than the Thunder team.

On June 13, in the fierce showdown in the 2025 NBA Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers fought a peak match. Although the Pacers are currently leading with a total score of 2-1, the Thunder still has stronger potential to win the championship in terms of overall strength and game situation, and the final belonging of this series is still full of suspense.

###1. The Thunder's lineup depth and star quality

The Thunder's core lineup is the top in the league. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has shown MVP-level dominance in both the regular season and the playoffs this season, averaging 31.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. His singles ability and organizational vision at critical moments are the team's decisive force. The growth of sophomore rookie Chet Holmgren is amazing. His influence on both offense and defense has ranked among the league's first-tier insiders - averaging 2.8 blocks per game, and a 40.1% three-point shooting percentage, perfectly adapts to the space-based center needs of modern basketball. In addition, Josh Giddey's all-round performance and Luguentz Dort's defensive resilience form the Thunder's balanced starting lineup. In contrast, the Pacers have an All-Star point guard like Tyrese Haliburton, but their lineup has obvious shortcomings. Myles Turner has strong inside defense, but lacks stability on the offensive end; Bennedict Mathurin has a good scoring explosiveness, but lacks playoff experience. When Halliburton encountered targeted double-teams from the Thunder, the problem of insufficient independent offensive ability of other Pacers players was exposed in G2 and G3.

###2. Adaptive competition for tactical systems

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault created the tactical system that is extremely flexible. The team's regular season three-point shooting percentage is 38.7% higher than the league, and averaged 21.4 points per game to score 21.4 points. This modern basketball concept of "five foreign positions + high pressure defense" has shown strong adaptability in the playoffs. Even in the two games lost, the Thunder also adjusted their defensive strategy to suppress the Pacers' average score below 107 points, far lower than its regular season 115.3 points.

Pacers rely too much on fast breaks and three-point shooting. When the Thunder consciously controls the rhythm of the game and cuts off Halliburton's connection with the shooter (such as G3 limits the Pacers' three-point shooting percentage to 29%), Rick Carlisle's tactical board seems to be stretched. The Pacers have averaged only 23 points per game in the series so far, while the Thunder substitutes can contribute 34.5 points under Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, a depth gap that will be a key variable in the long seven-game series.

###3. Historical data and psychological game

In NBA history, cases of final reversals falling 1-2 in the Finals are not uncommon. In the past ten years, there have been classic cases such as the 2016 Cavaliers and the 2021 Bucks. The Thunder have made a comeback three times this season when the series is lagging behind, showing their strong ability to adjust. In particular, Alexander's performance in adversity has become increasingly stable - he averaged 34.6 points per game when facing elimination in the playoffs this season, and his real shooting percentage is as high as 63.2%.

In contrast, the Pacers have entered the finals for the first time in 47 years, and the entire team lacks the experience of the ultimate stage. With G3 leading by 5 points in the last two minutes, two fatal mistakes were made in a row, revealing psychological fluctuations at critical moments. The Thunder team has 6 players with experience in the division finals or above, and this gap in background may become a decisive factor in the tiebreak battle.

###4. Potential variables in the future schedule

The next G4 will be held at the Thunder home game Paycom Center, where the playoffs maintain a winning rate of 85.7% this season. It is worth noting that the Thunder maintained a complete victory in the fourth game of all series this season, and averaged 14.3 points per game, showing strong tactical adjustment ability. If the big score can be tied, the psychological balance will completely fall to the Thunder side. The risks of inside rotation of the Pacers cannot be ignored. Turner is approaching his physical fitness limit by playing 37 minutes per game, and the Thunder are constantly calling out Turner through Homegren's shooting ability, consuming his defensive energy. Once Turner gets into foul trouble, the Pacers' defensive system will be at risk of collapse.

###5. The competition between X factors

referee scale may become a hidden variable. This season's playoff Thunder averaged 24.7 free throws per game, while the Pacers only 18.9. When the game enters a critical moment, Alexander's ability to create fouls (8.1 free throws per game) may become a weapon to break the balance. In addition, the Thunder medical team successfully maintained the health of core players, while Pacers wing general Aaron Nesmith is fighting with a knee injury, and his competitive state has only recovered by about 70%.

Overall, although the score is temporarily behind, the Thunder have an advantage in star quality, lineup depth, tactical adaptability and game experience. As proved by the Rockets in 1995 (final 4-0 sweep the Magic to win the championship) and the 2013 Heat (4-3 reversed the Spurs), the finals were a seven-game battle, and a temporary score-behind may not necessarily indicate the final outcome.. As long as the Thunder can solve the rebound protection problem exposed by G1 (losing 15 frontcourt rebounds in the game) and improve the execution of key balls, they are fully capable of replicating the 2012 Thunder's third young master (now coach Dagenot was a video analyst at the time). Each of the next battles will witness the final charge launched by this young guards to the Basketball Temple.