How does the Spurs deal with lottery draws? The second draw is replaced with letters & the No. 14 draw is replaced with KD Nets Johnson s best solution

(The original article was published on June 17, the author is an NBA expert group on ESPN website. The content of the article does not represent the translator's opinion)

According to sources, Wenban Yama is conducting a self-exploration journey in China for nearly two weeks. The Spurs hope that the French player can see the adjusted lineup when he returns to the team. The team is committed to ending the embarrassing record of missing the playoffs for six consecutive years. The Spurs hold a generous draft asset, including two lottery draws this year (the second draw and the No. 14 draw) and three other tradable first-round picks (not to mention those controllable contracts). The Spurs are fully capable of getting an All-Star player through trades, but with just one week left to open this year’s draft, the team is still weighing whether to deviate from its long-term plan to build sustainable competitiveness.

The Spurs launched this long-term plan as early as 2020, and their core goal is to win the Vinban Yama. "What we want to build is sustainable competitiveness and must be as steady as brickwork." Spurs general manager Brian Wright said in June last year after selecting Castle (4th pick) and Dillingham (8th pick, and then traded to the Timberwolves for the first round pick in 2031 and the first round swap rights in 2030), "All our decisions so far are based on this premise."

But after the Spurs, who have a large number of draft assets, will this team building concept continue after only achieving the eighth-worst record in the league (34 wins and 48 losses) this season? This possibility still exists, although some teams have asked the Spurs for the second draw, and two future Hall of Famers Antetokounmpo and Durant may enter the trading market. According to sources, the Spurs have not yet conducted substantial discussions on the former, and for the Spurs, who are in the early stages of Wenban Yama's career and are striving to act cautiously, the Suns' asking price for Durant may be too high.

However, Durant is still an opportunity, and the Spurs may win the elite wing shooter with championship blood at a lower cost (perhaps just a 14-pick with Wassell, or Kelden Johnson and Harrison Barnes). Wenban Yama has always admired Durant's style of competition and publicly expressed her hope to learn from the two-time champion. In an interview, Vinban Yama revealed that he talked to Durant after the gold medal match of the US and French men's basketball team at last year's Paris Olympics, and told the former MVP in person that he wanted to learn from him, and even steal a piece of unique skills or two. The Spurs' young lineup will benefit from Durant's coaching and training experience. These values ​​are well known to the current Spurs president of basketball operations Popovich. The former Spurs head coach who worked with 2018-year NBA veteran Durant for the United States hopes to equip new head coach Mickey Johnson with enough talent, including veterans who can help develop team cohesion. "His extraordinary lies not only in talent," Popovich said in his 2021 evaluation of Durant, "and more in the way he polishes his skills. The joy he exudes when playing is infectious."

Although many teams will join Durant's battle, don't expect the Spurs to participate in the bidding. Sources revealed that the Spurs are unlikely to give Durant the second pick. They plan to choose Dylan Harper and form a talented young core together with Vinban Yama and Castle.

With the French genius Vinban Yama coming into his third year of his career, Castle will also usher in his second season, and the Spurs are also in a good position in their financial situation. Even if Fox is about to renew his contract, the team still has enough room to gamble in Durant trade or free agent market. Currently, the Spurs still have $33 million in buffer space from the luxury tax line, while the difference is $37 million from the first tycoon line.

In addition to equip Wenban Yama with a better scorer group, the Spurs also need to find substitute point guards through the draft or free agent market, as well as inside players who can share the pressure for him. After sending Zach Collins away in Fox trade this season, the Spurs' center position depth is almost non-existent, leaving only Charles Bessi, who has only played 36 games due to injury.

When the Spurs evaluate various options, they always use long-term goals as the core of decision-making. I delved into how the Spurs should deal with the lottery draw in hand with Jeremy Woo, Kevin Pelton and Bobby Marks. Next, I will analyze the three trading options and give the final advice. ——Michael C. Wright

Further analysis of the Spurs lottery

Jeremy Woo: Although there have been constant discussions about how the Spurs should use this second draw since the lottery night, the Spurs management is very clear about the value of this lucky draw that jumped to 6 picks, so they are not in a hurry to start trading negotiations.

Spurs management is open to choosing Dylan Harper, the 1.98-meter-high Rutgers guard is regarded by most teams as the second rookie in this draft after Duke Cooper Flag. Although his adaptability problem with Fox and Castle is still to be solved, the flexibility brought by introducing Harper's top talent with a rookie contract is in line with the Spurs' strategy of continuing to equip Vinban Yama with growth partners, so most teams in the league expect the Spurs to choose the Rutgers defender.

And the No. 14 pick will be a bargaining chip for the Spurs to explore more possibilities: whether it is young players who choose to adapt to the core lineup or trade for immediate combat power or other forms of assets, players such as Carter Bryant, Noah Essange and Joao Berlange in this year's rookie may become the consideration of the Spurs' second lottery pick..

Trading Plan 1: Use multiple players + future draft picks to exchange Antetokounmpo

Bucks won: Harrison Barnes, Kelden Johnson, Jeremy Sohan, this year's second pick, 2026 first round pick (the Hawks and the Spurs are higher), 2028 first round pick (the Celtics and the Spurs are higher), 2030 first round pick (the Mavericks, Timberwolves and the Spurs are highest), 2031 first round swap rights (the Bucks can be exchanged for the Kings and the Spurs are higher)

Spurs won: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Kevin Pelton: The Spurs are fully capable of building Antetokounmpo trading plan with draft picks as the core, and have the advantage of packaging this year's second pick and future draft picks. Instead of betting on picks that the Spurs may fall in the final first round, the Bucks can bet on multiple teams that may be bad. Among them, the first round pick in 2030 is particularly precious because it is the first round pick with the highest pick among the three teams (although the first round swap rights with the Timberwolves are accompanied by the No. 1 pick protection clause). The Bucks can also win the lottery show in recent years, and the instant-to-play player who can maintain the team's competitiveness. The Bucks, who lost their first-round pick, have no motivation to play. Although giving away three rotation players and the second pick will weaken the Spurs' lineup depth, after forming the terrifying frontcourt double towers between Antetokounmpo and Vinban Yama, the Spurs still have plenty of time to continue to adjust the lineup around this pair (Casel and Fox in the backcourt).

Trading Plan 2: Spurs send players + this year's No. 14 draw for Durant

Suns get: Marachie Blanham, Blake Wesley, Harrison Barnes, Kelden Johnson, this year's No. 14 draw, 2027 Hawks' first round pick

Spurs get: Kevin Durant

Kevin Pelton: Given that Antetokounmpo has not yet submitted a transaction application, Durant is a more realistic goal for the Spurs. The Spurs need to weigh whether it is reasonable to place the veteran superstar who will turn 36 by the opening game next season, with the 21-year-old Wenban Yama in the same roster, and whether this will block the possibility of chasing Antetokounmpo in the future. Durant’s age and an expiring contract (one year left) meant that the Spurs didn’t need to exhaust future pick reserves for this. Spurs general manager Brian Wright once proposed a trading framework with Wassel as the core, but even if more draft picks are needed, the shooter's combat power should be retained first. The plan abandoned this year's No. 14 draw and the unprotected first-round pick obtained from the Hawks through Dejunta Murray's trade. By splitting Durant's salary, Solar will save about $12 million in salary next season, and it may further reduce costs if some players trade a second time.

Trading Plan 3: The Spurs retained the second pick and received Cameron Johnson

Nets won: Maracai Blanham, Kelden Johnson, this year's No. 14, 2029 first round pick (protected in the top 4 picks, if not fulfilled, it will be converted to two second round picks)

Spurs won: Cameron Johnson, this year's No. 27 Kevin Pelton:: As an alternative to pursuing superstars, the Spurs can seek non-star trades to optimize lineup adaptability. Cameron Johnson is an ideal candidate, averaging 18.8 points per game this season, setting a career high, and a career-level three-point shooting percentage of 39% can open up space for Wenban Yama, perfectly adapting to the space-type four-position playing style. The exchange of Kelden Johnson for Cameron Johnson has little impact on the Spurs' salary structure, and the key is that it will not affect the operating space of chasing Antetokounmpo in the future. Kelden Johnson's team-friendly contract ($54 million for the remaining three years) and all-round technology are suitable for any team. If necessary, they can be packaged into Antetokounmpo's transaction or cashed in separately. This plan gives the Nets the chance to upgrade the No. 27 to No. 14 (according to my draft pick value model, it is equivalent to getting an additional first-round final pick), plus a nearly unprotected 2029 first-round pick. The Spurs can retain the high-value draft picks and first-round swap rights obtained from other teams at their peak.

Which of these transaction plans is the most suitable?

ESPN expert Bobby Marks selected the most feasible trading plan mentioned above and analyzed its rationality: Last June Thunder trade was proven by Caruso's case that even if it did not involve All-Star players, the trading could have a significant impact. Although Durant and Antetokounmpo sound more attractive, especially considering that the Spurs already have Vampanyama, Fox and Castle in the Spurs lineup, Cameron Johnson is the more ideal choice from the perspective of basketball development timeline and cost-effectiveness.

Kelden Johnson's salary next season is only half of Durant or Antetokounmpo's contract. The Spurs do not need to break up the existing lineup, but only need to send out two players, Branham and Kelden Johnson. Even if Durant or Antetokounmpo enters the trading market next, the Spurs still retain sufficient trading chips after getting Cameron Johnson: not only retains the second pick in this year's draft, but also receives the Nets' first-round final pick, while retaining the most precious draft asset - the unprotected first-round pick of the Hawks in 2027.

Original text: NBA Insiders

Compiled by: Li Taibai