The Bucks sell Antetokounmpo countdown? Team 29 starts fighting, the Thunder Rockets throw out their kingly chips

1. Trading background: Why did the Bucks reach the intersection of "must sell"?

(I) Three consecutive years of first round + Lillard reimbursement: The championship window collapsed completely

In the first round of the 2025 playoffs, the Bucks lost to the Pacers with a total score of 1-4, and ended in the first round for three consecutive years. Such a result is undoubtedly a heavy blow to a team that is determined to compete for the championship. What's even more fatal is that Lillard, the 35-year-old core of the team, suffered a serious injury from a torn Achilles tendon and is expected to miss the entire 2025-26 season. Lillard's annual salary this season is as high as $45.64 million, and this contract will become a heavy burden on the team in the next three years, seriously limiting the team's salary operation space.

Antetokounmpo's current contract has 3 years of 173 million, but in 2026 he has the player option. If the Bucks do not start the reconstruction in time, with Lillard's injury and the team's performance sluggish, they may face a situation where they are unable to compete for the championship and lose Antetokounmpo.

(2) Antetokounmpo's urgent need to compete for the championship and the dilemma of the small ball market

The 30-year-old Antetokounmpo is at the peak of his career. This season, he averaged 33.8 points, 14.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists per game, and his real shooting percentage is as high as 66.0%, and his data performance is terrifying. However, for three consecutive years, he has been in a difficult dilemma of "carrying the whole team by one person". No matter how strong his personal ability is, it is difficult to lead the team further in the playoffs by himself.

Milwaukee, as a small ball market, lacks enough attractiveness in the free market, and it is difficult to attract top stars to join forces with Antetokounmpo. This makes the trading the only feasible way for the team to break the dilemma. The Bucks urgently need to use Antetokounmpo's peak value to exchange for reconstruction resources such as young players and draft picks. And 2026 happens to be the year of high-quality rookies, which provides the Bucks with an excellent time to rebuild, and obtain a high pick by trading Antetokounmpo, and is expected to select potential new stars, laying the foundation for the team's future.

2. King-level chips: Thunder & Why do the Rockets lead the battle to grab people?

(I) Houston Rockets: "Potential exchange is combat power" quotation

1. Core chips: Half team + draft pick sea

The two radical plans exposed by the US media fully demonstrate the Rockets' sincerity and determination. In the first set of plans, the Rockets proposed a bold deal of 6 for 1, and the chips they gave were luxurious. Jaylen Green, the potential star who averages 22 points per game, has attracted much attention since entering the league, and his explosive scoring and unlimited potential have made many teams salivate. Jabbarri Smith Jr., averaging 12.2 points and 7 rebounds per game. As an inside player, he has excellent rebounding ability and stable scoring performance, and is an important pillar of the team's interior. Shepard, this 2024 Tanhua Show, is talented. Although the rookie season data is not outstanding, it has great potential and a promising future. In addition, the Rockets also took on the first round pick for 2025/2027/2029, among which the first round pick for 2025 included the top 10 picks for the Suns, which undoubtedly greatly increased the attractiveness of the transaction.

The second set of plans is more radical, and the Rockets increase their investment in Whitmore and the second round pick, further demonstrating their desire for Antetokounmpo. As a potential front line, Whitmore has excellent defensive ability and offensive talent on the court, and his joining can add new vitality to the Bucks. In this transaction, the Rockets only retained Shin Kyung (18+9 All-Star Center) and Amen Thompson (14+8+3 Defensive Pioneer), and almost gave away half of the team just to get the superstar Antetokounmpo.

2. Tactical adaptation: creating "integrated offense and defense". The joining of the super battleship

Antetokounmpo will bring huge changes to the Rockets' tactical system. On the defensive end, the Rockets currently rank second in the league in defensive efficiency, reaching 109.2, which is already a pretty outstanding result. And Antetokounmpo's arrival is undoubtedly the icing on the cake. He averaged 1.4 caps per game in his career, had excellent assisted deterrence, and was able to build a solid barrier in the inside, greatly improving the Rockets' defensive strength. The three-high system composed of Antetokounmpo, Shin Kyung and Thompson will make the Rockets' defense cover a wider area. Whether it is the inside protection of the basket or the outside defense, it will be greatly strengthened, and it is expected to upgrade the Rockets to a top defensive team. On the offensive end, Antetokounmpo's high-level support ability will inject new vitality into the Rockets' offense. He can attract opponents' double-team defense, thus creating more offensive opportunities for teammates. As an All-Star center, Shin Kyung has excellent low-post skills. Antetokounmpo's arrival can activate his offensive ability and make him more comfortable in low-post offense. Thompson's fast break propulsion ability is also a major killer for the Rockets' offense. He averaged 3.2 fast break points per game. His cooperation with Antetokounmpo will make the Rockets' fast break more sharp, and can quickly counterattack in the game, disrupt the opponent's defensive rhythm, and solve the problem of the Rockets' weak attack in the final quarter of the playoffs.

3. Risks and Challenges: Rebuilding or the double-edged sword for the championship, the Rockets' trading plan seems beautiful, but it also faces many risks and challenges. It is an unknown for the Bucks to accept the Rockets' "Important Power + Draft" combination. During the reconstruction process, the Bucks may be more inclined to get more than 5 first-round picks to speed up the team's reconstruction process, and the Rockets' chips may not fully meet the needs of the Bucks in terms of first-round picks.

For the Rockets themselves, giving up new stars such as Green is undoubtedly a big bet. These young players all have great potential and are the Rockets' hope for the future. Once the deal is completed, the Rockets may overdraw their future development potential. If Antetokounmpo cannot lead the team to win the championship, the Rockets will fall into an embarrassing situation. In addition, the Rockets also need to convince Antetokounmpo to give up the super top salary in 2026. It is estimated that this will cost the Rockets 30 million in cap space, which will have a significant impact on the team's salary structure and future signing plans. If Antetokounmpo cannot be successfully convinced, the deal may be difficult to achieve.

(II) Oklahoma City Thunder: The dimensionality reduction strike of the "draft empire"

1. Terrorist asset reserves: 13 first-round picks in the next 7 years + top star

The Thunder have always been famous for their rich draft pick reserves in the trading market, which also makes them have an advantage in the competition to chase Antetokounmpo. The Thunder’s core strength is that they have a strong combination of “Sea of ​​Drafts + Potential Stocks”, which allows them to come up with an attractive trading plan. The two sets of plans suggested by the US media fully demonstrate the Thunder's strong strength. In the Bill Simmons version of the plan, the Thunder proposed to exchange for Antetokounmpo with Homegren (15+8+2.2 hats per game) + Jaylen Williams (18+5 all-around forward) + 5 first-round picks. As a rookie in the inside, Homegren has excellent defensive and offensive potential on the court. His height and wingspan give him strong dominance in the inside, and his average 2.2 caps per game proves his ability to protect the basket. Jaylen Williams is an all-around forward who has performed well on both offense and defense and is able to contribute to the team in many aspects. The probability of the 5 first-round picks in 2025 is as high as 25%, which is undoubtedly a huge temptation. For the rebuilding Bucks, these draft picks will provide them with more reconstruction resources. The

Extreme Soha version's plan is even more crazy. The Thunder directly clears the draft assets for the next 5 years and gives out Harten (defensive champion) + Wallace (point guard potential stock) + 4 first rounds + 3 second rounds. As a defensive player, Harten can provide tough defense in the inside and add guarantee to the team's inside defense. Although Wallace is a potential stock in point guards, his playing time may be limited in the Thunder's lineup, and trading him has a relatively small impact on the Thunder. In this transaction, the large number of first-round picks and second-round picks sent by the Thunder are enough to show their determination to win Antetokounmpo.

2. Lineup Chemistry: Creating the "Off and Defensive Conversion Machine"

Antetokounmpo and Alexander (31 points and 5.5 assists per game) will undoubtedly become one of the most impactful duos in the league. In terms of fast break scoring, Antetokounmpo averaged 5.8 points per game, and Alexander averaged 4.2 points per game. The two teamed up to greatly improve the Thunder's fast break scoring ability. Currently, the Thunder's fast break score ranks third in the league, averaging 18.7 points per game. The combination of Antetokounmpo and Alexander is expected to increase this data to 25+, making the Thunder's offense more sharp, and can quickly counterattack in the game and disrupt the opponent's defensive rhythm.

In terms of defensive coverage, Homgren's basket protection ability and Antetokounmpo's cooperative defense ability will perfectly complement each other. Homegren averaged 2.2 shots per game and was able to protect the rim from the inside, while Antetokounmpo had excellent awareness and ability to assist in defense. He was able to fill in the position in time and interfere with the opponent's offense. The combination of the two will make up for the Thunder's lack of height in the interior and make the Thunder's defense stronger. Whether it is the inside defense or the outside defense, it will be greatly strengthened.

3. Management Game: Reasonable Presti's gamble moment

Thunder general manager Presti is known for being a "master of draft pick hoarding". He has always insisted on building a team through draft picks and training young players. And if Homegren is given this time, it will undoubtedly be a huge challenge for Presti. He needs to bet on Antetokounmpo’s adaptability to Alexander (25) at his peak at 30-33, which is a factor full of uncertainty. If the two can have a good chemistry, the Thunder will be a strong contender for the championship; but if the two are not compatible, the Thunder may be in trouble.

However, the Thunder also have their advantages. The team currently has a very abundant salary space, with only 120 million yuan, giving them enough room to bear super luxury taxes. This means that after the Thunder gets Antetokounmpo, they don’t have to worry about the salary space and can equip Antetokounmpo with a better lineup. The only concern is whether this deal will break the Thunder’s core strategy of “draft team building”. Presti needs to make a difficult choice between the team's short-term championship and long-term development, which will test his wisdom and courage.

3. Other 27 teams' chip inventory: Gradient analysis from "joining" to "dark horse"

(I) Fourth level (insufficient chips, basically eliminated)

Nuggets / Lakers / Suns: Although the Nuggets have the superstar Jokic, they are stretched in draft picks, and there are few first-round picks that can be used for trading in the next few years. At the same time, the potential of young players in the team is relatively limited, making it difficult to meet the Bucks' needs for reconstruction. The Lakers are not optimistic either. They are currently short of salary space, with only one first-round pick appearing a bit thin in the trade, and the team's lineup is aging and lack of young and promising players, which makes them lack sufficient attractiveness in the trade negotiations. The Suns have only 2 first-round picks in the next seven years. Such a draft pick reserve is obviously unable to impress the Bucks. In addition, their lineup is relatively fixed and the tradable assets are limited, so they basically withdraw from the ranks of competing for Antetokounmpo.

Warriors/Celtics: The salary of the Warriors is "explosive". The salary of core players such as Curry, Butler, and Green occupies a lot of salary space..

5. Conclusion: A big bet with no way out

The Bucks' Antetokounmpo deal is essentially the helpless breakthrough of the small ball market in the era of superstars - either exchange peak value for the future, or watch the stars fall completely after they grow old. The Rockets Thunder’s radical offer is the “Shuha Moment” in the window period for the championship: give up the new star trained in 5 years in exchange for the super-powered combat power. If you succeed, the dynasty will be laid, and if you fail, you will be doomed. This trade war involving 29 teams will ultimately test the wisdom of the three parties: 1. The Bucks: Can they find a balance between "rebuilding returns" and "Antetokounmpo's will";

2. Rockets Thunder: Do you have the courage to take the risk of "overdrawing the future";

3. Antetokounmpo: Choose a "team with a higher probability of championship" or "the path to maximize salary." Regardless of the outcome, the NBA's power map will surely be completely rewritten by this deal in the summer of 2025.