The ultimate problem of the Rockets offseason is revealed, how should Ethan choose?

The Rockets' offseason in the past two years can be said to be very successful. Not only did they find historical super giant Durant, but they also renewed their contracts with high-potential rookies such as Shin Kyung and Smith. Such a lineup and salary structure have basically been announced to be a champion. But for the Rockets management, the few questions in the lineup are that there is still a main player who has not completed the signing. This is: Tari-Ethan. And his contract renewal became even more confusing with Jabbarry Smith's successful signing. John Hollinger, a data analysis expert at

TA, believes that high-order data shows that Ethan is a better player than Jia, who eliminates the illusory things in draft picks. He bluntly stated that if Xiao Jia can get 125 million in five years, then Ethan's bottom line will be the same. But Hollinger also said that since the Rockets were willing to give Xiao Jia a five-year contract in advance, judging from Ethan's stranding so far, the Rockets may have a different view from him.

In fact, if we look at the performance of playing time in the last two games, in addition to the playoffs, I also think that as long as I can play Ethan is a player with a higher influence than Xiao Jia. (Xiao Jia's G1-G3 in the playoffs this year is too outstanding) But Ethan's influence is mainly on defense and rotational offense, and these values are not easy to quantify into data. And even if it is not considered potential, Xiao Jia's role positioning is likely to be the center in the defensive end in the lineup. In the second half of this year, he is basically the defensive core of the substitute lineup. It is difficult for you to find such a player in the free market. Although Ethan has stronger single defense than Jia Xiao, the wings are replaceable enough in the market. This is to say that the Rockets won Anthony Smith this year. In addition, Ethan's attendance rate is a huge problem. He has played only 79 games in the last two regular seasons, and has not played more than 25 minutes in any season in his career. Even if the high-level data is good, you will not consider giving such a player a 20 million contract that lasts more than 4 years.

Of course, for Ethan's most troubled leg problems so far in his career have been corrected through surgery in March 2024, and players usually need to fully recover until the second season after the surgery. And from the past players of his age, leg problems actually don’t affect the subsequent development process. So if you deliberately delay the contract renewal based on this issue, it is highly likely that it is a negotiation skill.

The Rockets are more realistic now that if Durant didn't let go for one season, then they would not be able to renew their contract with Ethan in order to avoid the tyrant tax. Player Value Network BORD$ valued Ethan at $21.7 million (annual salary), partly due to its unstable recent health record. But even if the Rockets and Ethan can reach a viable number (like $65 million to $70 million in three years), the Rockets will prioritize Durant's contract renewal.

Durant's contract renewal will be very high even if the salary cut is only 1+1, the Rockets' spending in the 26-28 season will be very high. With the Rockets' consistent urination, they are unlikely to try to hit the second tyrant tax. The Rockets record Ben DuBose believes that due to the limitations of the Rockets' forward lineman being full of "blessings", the Rockets will definitely not throw too big contracts for Ethan, and he may have to accept a compromise plan to renew the contract: a 1+1 short contract. If Ethan refuses, the Rockets will simply wait until 2026 to become a restricted free agent before considering other issues.

However, it is not easy for Ethan to accept either plan. The 1+1 contract is obviously lower than expected and the ending of becoming a restricted free agent next year is not very good. For a long time in the future, in order to avoid capacities, the top teams are expected to not be restricted. Most of the restricted free agents' parent teams will not renew their contracts early as before, but will wait until other teams match before taking action. It is estimated that the lowest price in the market and then give the contract will be beneficial to the team. But on the other hand, it is extremely unfavorable for the players. Look at Kumingga, Grimes, Gidedy now...