From the triple crown to the four majors, Manchester City is facing a life-and-death decision, why did Guardiola fall from the altar overnight?

At Wembley Stadium on May 17, 2025, Manchester City lost to Crystal Palace 0-1, swallowing the bitter fruit of two consecutive FA Cup appearances. This loss was not only a score failure, but also a concentrated outbreak of Manchester City's struggles throughout the season. During the game, Malmush missed a penalty kick and Crystal Palace goalkeeper Henderson escaped the red card with a handball outside the penalty area, and the VAR penalty caused huge controversy.

FA Cup final controversial night: a loss that reflects the microcosm of the season. But in addition to the controversy, the dismal data of Manchester City's 23 shots in the game exposed the deep crisis of this team: rigid tactics, plunging shooting efficiency, and aging of core players. These problems have pushed down the former "triple crown" dynasty like dominoes.

Guardiola rarely admitted after the game: "We have lost control of the game." This sentence may summarize Manchester City's 2025 season - a team that once used the creed of "handling the ball means domination", eventually lost its direction in the opponent's intensive defense and its own efficiency decline.

Bottleneck of the tactical system: The ball-handling philosophy has suffered a backlash from the Premier League's "iron barrel formation"

Manchester City's ball-handling rate this season is still as high as 61.1%, and the number of passes per game and the number of offensive touches in the third zone are firmly ranked first in the Premier League. But behind the glamorous data is the fatal flaw of ineffective ball control. When facing mid- and lower-level teams such as Crystal Palace and Southampton, Manchester City often falls into the dilemma of "encircling but not attacking": the opponent compresses the defense line, gives up high-level pressing, takes advantage of the hesitation of Manchester City forward players in the penalty area, and creates a threat through quick counterattacks. The plunge in the shooting conversion rate is a direct reflection of this dilemma. This season, Manchester City's Premier League shooting conversion rate was only 10.5%, a sharp drop of 24.4% from last season, with an average shooting distance of 1 meter, and the proportion of long shots increased significantly.

Although Haaland leads the scorer list with 28 goals, his number of touches and confrontation success rate has dropped significantly, and he has become a "stand-standing center" and has lost the flexibility of last season as an offensive fulcrum.

Malmush's joining was originally expected to activate Haaland, but the Egyptian striker's inability to adapt to Manchester City's complex pass control system has instead caused the offensive end to fall into the "depressed pain of aging of the lineup: the end of the De Bruyne era and the midfield's out of control

De Bruyne and the B seat's age have become a microcosm of the decline in the dominance of Manchester City's midfield. Although the 34-year-old De Bruyne still has singles The highlight moment of assists and double hits, but its physical fitness and coverage ability can no longer support the high-intensity output of the entire game; the efficiency of B-seater's ball-holding breakthrough has decreased, resulting in Manchester City's lack of "explosion points" to break through under the opponent's intensive defense.

What's more fatal is that in the summer window of last year, the Manchester City management only filled the vacancy in the midfield with veteran Gundogan, and failed to introduce young cores in time, resulting in the team being frequently passive due to the loss of control of the midfield in key battles.

The sensation of injuries on the back line further amplifies the problem. Rodri, Acker and Stones' long absence forced Guardiola to transfer Gvadiol to the central defender position, and wide defense loopholes frequently appear. Although the rise of youth training young player Cole Palmer injects vitality into the team, his lack of experience can hardly make up for the decline of the core veteran.

Strategic mistakes of management: Financial disputes and construction The team's thinking swing

Manchester City's dilemma is no accident. In the summer window of 2024, the club invested only 33.6 million pounds to sign, but made a net profit of 110 million pounds by selling players. This "self-profit and loss" strategy maintained fiscal health in the short term, but overdrawed the depth of the lineup. At the same time, the pending 115 allegations of financial violations against Manchester City against Manchester City has left the team in a long-term whirlpool, indirectly affecting the sensation The aid plan and locker room are stable.

Guardiola's future has also become an uncertain factor. The Spanish coach was revealed to have left the team in 2025, and Manchester City prepared 300 million pounds of recruitment funds to try to maintain competitiveness through the "gold-dollar offensive".

However, this panic investment in the "post-Guardiola era" just exposed the lack of management's long-term team building plan - relying on superstars rather than systems is the opposite of Guardiola's previous successful philosophy.

Where will the future go: The three key propositions of reconstruction

Manchester City's innovation and stability can be promoted from three aspects: tactical, inject more direct offensive elements on the basis of maintaining the tradition of ball control, learn from Liverpool's rapid transfer and combination of side and middle tactics, reduce invalid crossing to enhance the depth of the offensive.

lineup, accelerate The process of rejuvenating the midfield, introducing a young core with both technical capabilities and running coverage, and at the same time activate the forward linkage effect between Marmush and Haaland to avoid wasting resources.

Management needs to properly resolve financial allegations and disputes as soon as possible, clarify the whereabouts of Guardiola's coaching, prevent the collapse of the tactical system due to the change of coaches, and lay a solid foundation for the long-term development of the team.

Conclusion

Manchester City's 2025 season is like a mirror, reflecting the inevitable dilemma of the top giants after their peak: tactics have been thoroughly studied, core aging, and management decision-making lag.

But there is also a turning point in the crisis - the accumulation of youth training system and the continuous growth of commercial income still retain the capital for reconstruction for Manchester City. As Guardiola said: "Failure is not the end, but the starting point of redefining success. "Can this team that has rewrite the Premier League pattern be reborn in the pain? The answer may be in the choice of the next season.