Nico s transfers are all about 9% and 150%, after all, they are just probability rather than reality

99% and 150%, after all, are just probability rather than reality. This Friday, Nico Williams' transfer soap opera with Barcelona officially ended with the funny way of renewing the contract with Bibao winger until 2035. During the negotiations held on Thursday, Nico insisted on adding the termination clause in the contract in the event of a failed registration, but this was something Barcelona would not accept.

Even though the two parties have reached an agreement on personal terms, this difference cannot be reconciled in the end. Barcelona sports director Deco said that although similar terms were added when signing players such as Dani Ormo, the club will not give in this time.

Williams' team hopes that Barcelona can guarantee successful registration by August 20, allowing him to qualify for the first match day of the new season. In recent years, Barcelona has been struggling with the difficulty of having money to buy new players and not having room to register - Olmo's repeated pulls thanks to the court's ruling. The negotiations on Thursday were just one of several twists in the already tense transfer relationship between Barcelona and Bibao. At the same time, Nico himself faces abuse and accusations from local fans. In the eyes of local fans, Nico's departure for only 58 million yuan (despatch price) was undoubtedly a betrayal - everything broke down in the end.

On Friday morning, Williams decided to sign a new 10-year contract with Athletic Bilbao and add a provision for the expropriation fee. This news shocked many Barcelona players, including close friends like Yamal. Barcelona executives even learned the news through social media - in other words, Bi Bao did not know in advance. Bi Bao’s official announcement of the contract also revealed a bit of anxiety, because it was taken in a hurry the night before.

In the eyes of many, this is a sudden dramatic twist. However, behind all seemingly sudden turns, there are often enough paving.

Barca's interest in Nico began last year. After a brilliant European Cup, the 58 million euro termination fee clause in Nico's contract has long made all the wealthy families salivate. Barcelona is of course one of them, but the Basques are particularly puzzled: Barcelona's financial situation is well known, how can they take away the most precious talents?

End of all, Nico stayed in San Mames before the start of the season. Barcelona turned around and signed Olmo for 60 million euros, but the registration process was full of twists and turns. Due to the salary cap exceeding the limit, La Liga restricted Barcelona from registering new players. Laporta tried his best to take advantage of the loopholes in the rules, and temporarily removed the injured Christensen from the list, which allowed Ormo to successfully register. Last year's registration worries cast a shadow on Nico's transfer breakdown.

However, this is just a temporary measure that can control half a year. In January 2025, La Liga once again determined that Barcelona was not allowed to register for Olmo because their salary expenses were still exceeding the standard. What followed was unprecedented action. Barcelona overturned the decision with the intervention of the Spanish government. This did not escape Bi Bao's attention.

On January 8, Bibao and Barcelona met in the semi-finals of the Spanish Super Cup held in Saudi Arabia. At this time, Laporta and the team members were confirmed that Olmo (and Paul Victor, who was in love with each other) could play. During the game, the Barcelona chairman celebrating the decision in the administrative box, which still vividly remembered several members of Bibao's board of directors. When Olmo joined Barcelona, he added a "failure and leave" clause to his contract: if Barcelona fails to register for him, he can leave the team for free. When he was unregistered by La Liga in early January, he could have decided to activate the clause and leave the team freely. But he decided to stay with the team and waited for the ruling to register successfully. In fact, this clause is not an isolated case in Barcelona's signings in recent years: Gundogan, who joined the same year and Conde, who joined two years ago, have similar provisions in the contract.

La Liga chairman Javier Tebas added fuel to the fire on Tuesday that Barcelona's registration in the summer transfer window has always been problematic. New aid Huoan Garcia is still in "unregistered".

When the transfer window opens this year, Nico is not Barcelona's primary goal. In early June, Barcelona asked Liverpool winger Louis Dias to be rejected, but this made Nico's agent team move and began to take the initiative to show goodwill to Barcelona.

Soon, Nico rose to Barcelona's first choice. Senior executives, including Laporta, gave the green light to the transfer, especially Laporta. He had put aside his prejudice that he felt that Nico was “not sincere enough” last summer and began to praise the young winger’s modesty.

On June 13, Nico's agent met with Barcelona senior executives and said that if he could guarantee registration in La Liga, the customer would be willing to join. Ten days later, Deco said in an interview with The Pioneer that they were interested in Williams and would work hard to complete his signing. On June 23, Williams personally informed Athletic Bilbao that he was interested in joining Barcelona. Athletic Bilbao issued a statement three days later protesting Barcelona officials' public talks about signing Williams. In addition to the protests, the statement also detailed the meeting between the team's senior officials and demanded that La Liga review the Barcelona salary limit. "We thank La Liga for showing frankness and clarity in yesterday's meeting," the statement read.

Barca did not appreciate this. Laporta spoke at a public event in the same week, responding to Bi Bao, "Respect others, don't pay attention to others, and handle your own affairs."

In this tense atmosphere, the negotiations between Williams and Barcelona continue.

According to a Barcelona insider, a one-time termination fee of 58 million euros is not a problem. The money is ready, but will not be paid after June 30 (the end of the Spanish fiscal year). Barcelona plans to use next season's budget to complete the signing, but the player's full consent is required before paying the termination fee..

Nico and Barcelona have been negotiating over the past week, but they have broken down due to the inability to reach the most critical registration clause. Nico not only insisted on joining the terms, but also claimed that Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Athletic Bilbao are also willing to provide appropriate quotes.

Deco has always been reluctant to compromise. He promised Nico's agent that he would successfully register the winger before the end of the summer transfer window, but he did not want to risk 58 million euros to waste. According to people familiar with the matter, Deco suffered a lot in the Olmo registration storm last season and he was unwilling to repeat similar things. In addition, Barcelona believes that after the unpleasant dialogue last summer, the club is willing to restart negotiations with Nico, which has shown good demeanor.

Nevertheless, Barcelona executives believed until Wednesday night that Nico Williams was about to become a member of his family. They believe that in the face of Nico's strong desire to join Barcelona, all contract terms are not a problem. Soon, reality will give them a loud slap.

On Thursday night, Williams, who returned from vacation, returned to Bilbao. Late in Bilbao, he and club employees took video materials for renewal in front of his murals.

Nico's mural has been destroyed three times in the past three weeks, and the club will send someone to repair it every time. In this video, Williams wrote the words “WIN 2035” on the wall with spray paint. In order to avoid leaking the news, this word is erased immediately after the video is recorded.

Barcelona senior management learned through this video that the transfer had completely failed. The same goes for the vast majority of players, some of them can’t understand what’s going on, as Williams’s impending arrival is taken for granted – the locker room has long been discussing his jersey number.

Over the past few months, Athletic Bilbao has held several rounds of consultations on Williams' contract renewal. After the new contract is signed, Williams will become the highest annual salary in team history, with an annual salary of about 10 million euros after tax. Thanks to the tax preferential policies of Biscay, where Bilbao is located (allowing players to enjoy lower tax rates as a "special profession with shorter years of working years", Bibao can offer treatment far higher than Barcelona.

Nico Williams' transfer failure is a foregone conclusion, and Barcelona must consider the next step. Club sources expect Barcelona's plan to strengthen the left winger will not change and they will resume interest in the initial two goals: Luis Dias and Marcus Rashford.

Dias is Deco's first choice and will surely be the sporting director's priority - although the transfer will be difficult to push due to many factors such as finance.

Rashford is a more economical option, Manchester United is peddling him, and the 27-year-old is also inclined to start over in a different environment. If you are willing to join by loan or salary cut, this is what Barcelona are happy to see.

Anyway, Barcelona will soon have a big move. They need to find new momentum after their recent setbacks.