Wednesday 001 Women s Final Four Japanese Women s Football Team VS Chinese Taipei Women s Football Team [Score Forecast]

[Score Forecast] Q462878535

Combined with the latest lineup adjustments, tactical trends and recent state, the Japanese women's football team will still have an overwhelming advantage in the East Asian Cup group stage against the Chinese Taipei Women's Football Team on July 9, but after completing the membership change, Chinese Taipei's naturalized player Matsunaga Sakihime may create a threat in local confrontation. It is expected that the Japanese women's football team will win with a score of 3-0 or 4-0. The following is the key analysis:

1. Lineup configuration: Japan rotates but its strength is still crushing, and China's Taipei Naturalization Improvement Limited

(I) Japanese women's football team: Domestic league team + Rising star potential

According to the 1314 East Asian Cup roster released by the Japanese Football Association on June 17, the team is mainly domestic league players, and only one overseas player, Haruka Osawa (Stuttgart Women's Football Team), was selected. Although there is lack of overseas league experience, the lineup includes many international players and potential new stars:

Midfielder core: Narimiya Wei (Kobe Lioness) is the offensive organizer of the Japanese women's football team. His short pass penetration and long-range shooting ability can tear open the opponent's defense line; the newcomer Chihiro Ichise (Hiroshima Miarai) was selected for the national team for the first time, and his breakthrough speed on the wing was extremely fast and he might become a surprise.

forward combination: Ueno Mitsu (Hiroshima Miyasu) and Haruka Osawa have both technical and impactful strength. The two contributed a total of 12 goals and 7 assists in the 2025 Japanese League, with stable offensive efficiency.

Defensive system: The defense line led by Takahashi Hana (Urawa Red Diamond) has completed 7 clean sheets in the 2025 league, with outstanding regional joint defense and high-altitude ball competition.

Although the Japanese team rotated a large number of young players, their overall strength was still far superior to that of Taipei, China. For example, newcomer Shimada Kazu (Hiroshima Miar) has shown excellent interception skills in the 2025 league, with his position awareness and ball-out stability even surpassing some veterans 13.

(II) Chinese Taipei Women's Football Team: Naturalized players are difficult to break the deadlock when fighting alone

Although the Chinese Taipei Women's Football Team successfully naturalized the mixed-race midfielder Matsunaga Sakihime 15, and she started and contributed 1 assist 5 in the match against Kyrgyzstan on July 2, the overall lineup is still dominated by local league players:

Midfield Reliance: Matsunaga Sakihime's passing success rate is as high as 82% (2025 Japanese League data), but other Chinese Taipei midfielders such as Chen Yinghui and Zeng Yunya have weak confrontational abilities and are difficult to maintain ball control under high pressure.

Defense line hazards: defenders Su Xinyun and Pu Xinhui were beaten behind many times in the 2025 Pinatal Cup against the Chinese women's football team, and lacked air defense capabilities. They will be very passive in the cross from the Japanese team on the wing in 1920.

Short offense: Although Taipei, China won 3-0 against Pakistan in June 2025, its opponents were weak; when facing Asian strong teams, it averaged only 4.2 shots per game, with a shooting rate of less than 30Q6.

2. Tactical game: Japan's high-pressure pressing vs. China's Taipei intensive defense

(I) Japanese women's football team: Breakthrough on the wing + penetration on the middle

Japanese coach Niels Nelson focused on practicing the 4-3-3 formation in the 2025 warm-up match:

Windstroke cuts inward: Chihi Ichise and Yalai Hamada (RB Omiya Squirrels) will use their speed to attack the gap behind Chinese Taipei full-backs Huang Kexin and Li Yiwen, and then cuts inward to cooperate with the midfielders to complete the shot.

Settings Tactics: Urimiya's free kick and Takahashi's header are the main scoring methods for the Japanese team, and the two directly participated in 11 goals and 13 through set pieces in the 2025 league.

High pressure pressing: The Japanese team averaged 18.3 steals per game (2025 league data), and midfielders Suno Susano (Nikawa Tokyo Green) and Kitamura Miha (Chibahama) will focus on oppressing China's Taipei midfielder to cut off their ties with the striker.

(II) Chinese Taipei Women's Football Team: Defensive counterattack + Setting ball sneak attack

Facing the high-pressure pressing from the Japanese team, Chinese Taipei may adopt a 5-4-1 formation:

Defensive line contraction: 5 defenders form intensive defense, focusing on protecting the arc top area of ​​the penalty area to avoid being scored by the Japanese team from a long shot.

Counterattack depends on speed: The speed of forward Su Yuxuan (Zhejiang Hangzhou Women's Football Team) is the only breakthrough, but it requires the support of midfielder Matsunaga Sakihime.

Settings Threat: Matsunaga Saki’s free kick and Li Yiwen’s cross from the wing may create chaos, but the proportion of Chinese Taipei scored by less than 15%5 in the 2025 match.

3. Key data and historical confrontation: Japan's complete victory + offense and defense crushing

(I) Historical confrontation one-sided

The two sides have won all the past 10 official confrontations, with averaging 5.2 goals per game, including 1011 tragedies including 9-0 victory in the 2019 East Asian Cup and 4-1 victory in the 2022 East Asian Cup. Even if the Japanese team rotates the roster (such as multiple main players in 2019), they can still win by a big score, and this advantage stems from the overall leadership in technology, physical fitness and tactical execution.

(II) Recent status comparison

Japanese Women's Football Team: defeated Colombia Women's Football Team 2-0 in the 2025 SheBelieves Cup and swept Serbia and Finland 312 5-0, 5-1. Although this time it is dominated by domestic players, young players have shown strong adaptability in the league, such as Chihiro Ichise contributed 6 goals, 4 assists, 13 assists in 15 games of Hiroshima Miarak.

Chinese Taipei Women's Football Team: lost to the Chinese Women's Football Team 0-4 in the Pinatal Cup in February 2025, lost to the Chinese Women's Football Team 3-5 in the Asian Cup in May. Although they defeated Kyrgyzstan 3-0 on July 2, their opponents are weak. The reference value is

4. Score prediction: Japan may win more than 3 goals, and it is difficult for Chinese Taipei to break through the intensive defense

Comprehensive strength gap and tactical layout. The Japanese Women's Football Team is very likely to win with a score of 3-0 or 4-0. The Japanese team's wing breakthroughs and set-piece tactics will continue to create murderous intent, while the defense line of Taipei in China may make mistakes under continuous high pressure. If the Japanese team strengthens rotation (such as sending new players such as Shimada and Kazuyu Yagata), the score may be further expanded to 5-0.

5. Risk warning

The Japanese team rotation affects efficiency: young players' lack of experience in the competition may lead to mistakes on the offensive end. For example, Chihi Ichise has missed a one-on-one opportunity many times in the league.

Defensive resilience of Taipei in China: Taipei lost to the Chinese women's football team 0-2 in the 2022 East Asian Cup, but successfully scored a clean sheet in the second half. If this defensive resilience can be continued, it may avoid a larger score loss of 5.

Weather and Venue: The game is held in South Korea, and the high temperature and high humidity may affect both sides' physical fitness, but the Japanese team has richer experience in international competitions and stronger adaptability.

In summary, the Japanese women's football team is very likely to win a big victory in Wednesday's game with its comprehensive strength advantage and psychological deterrence of historical confrontations. The Chinese Taipei Women's Football Team needs to rely on intensive defense and counterattack to find opportunities, but the overall situation is not optimistic.