Why did Premier League goals suddenly drop sharply? Five reasons reveal goal drought

The new season of the Premier League has just started for five rounds, and a surprising trend has emerged: the number of goals has dropped sharply. Is this a temporary fluctuation, or is it a fundamental change in the style of Premier League games?

Goal tide has receded, and the data has bottomed out

In the past few seasons, the Premier League has been known for its "goal feast". From 2021/22 to 2024/25, the highest goal rate per game has been set for four consecutive years, with an average of at least 2.82 goals per game. Fans seem to be used to the fierce confrontation with fast pace and high scores.

However, the start of the 2025/26 season was very different. So far, the average goal count is only 2.48 goals, the lowest level since the 2008/09 season, and only 0.03 goals higher than the Premier League record (2.45 goals in the 2006/07 season).

If the penalty kick is excluded, the non-penalty goal rate this season is as low as 2.24 goals per game, which is infinitely close to the lowest 2.22 goals in history. This shows that the team's ability to score in sports battles is facing severe tests.

Why is it difficult to score? Analysis of the five major reasons

New players running-in period: The giants' offense "stuck"

Although Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and other championship teams have made heavy signings (such as Cherki, Wilz, Isak, etc.), it takes time for the integration of new players and the team system. The chemical reaction at the offensive end has not been established, which has led to the previous smooth cooperation becoming awkward and greatly reduced efficiency.

The number of shots has dropped sharply: the ability to create opportunities has decreased

The problem is not only the inaccurate shots. This season, the total number of shots per game was only 22.5, setting a record low since the 2003/04 season. The team's overall ability to create scoring opportunities has been significantly weakened, which is one of the fundamental reasons for the reduction in goals.

"Football" disappears: lack of "send points boys"

The overall strength of the newly promoted team this season is strong, and there is no "send points boys" that have been at the bottom for a long time and have many defensive loopholes as before. The overall competition in the league is more balanced, and the big score wins naturally decrease, which also lowers the total number of goals.

Tactical Turn: Long passes and "pragmatism" are prevalent

More teams have begun to adopt direct and efficient offensive methods. Tactics such as goalkeeper opening a big foot and driving the ball directly to the frontcourt are frequently used. Although this "long-term pass" style can be promoted quickly, the success rate is low, resulting in a large number of attacks ending in failure. Football is returning to a more "pragmatic" era - prioritizing not to concede goals rather than scoring crazy goals.

Extreme defense: Even Manchester City is "setting a bus"?

The most shocking thing is that even Manchester City, which is famous for ball control and offense, took the initiative to shrink its defense against Arsenal, and even replaced multiple attackers at the end of the game to maintain a 1-0 victory. Guardiola admitted that his opponent's strength forced him to make changes. This shows that the teams' fear of each other's strength has reached a new level, and they would rather seek stability than take risks in attacking.

0-0 draws increase, is it a signal or accident?

There have been 6 0-0 games this season, with a 0-0 draw rate of up to 12%, the second highest opening record in Premier League history. This is the concentrated reflection of the above trend: the team pays more attention to the stability of defense and the pace of the game tends to be cautious.

What will happen in the future?

Although 27 goals were scored in the fifth round of the game last week, which seemed to show signs of recovery, data shows that the total expected goals (xG) in this round was the lowest in the past decade, indicating that the goals were more due to luck than improvement in offensive quality.

Experts believe that as new players gradually integrate, the number of goals may rebound. But the greater possibility is that the Premier League is entering a "prudent era" that focuses more on balance and emphasizes defense. The former goal frenzy may not return immediately, and fans need to adapt to a Premier League where goals are more "precious".